Comparative Market Analysis — 9921 Michelle, San Antonio 78266

Subject Property

Property Overview

Type

Single Family Detached

Stories

2

Builder

Highland

Garage

3-Car

Pool

None

Lot Character

Corner, Mature Trees, Sloping

County

Comal

Schools

Comal ISD (Davenport HS)

Construction

Brick / Slab / Heavy Comp. Roof

Water / Sewer

City / Aerobic Septic

Annual Tax (2024)

$11,596

HOA

$300 / Year

Listing History

546 Days on Market · Two Listing Periods

This property has been listed twice by the same agent (Tom Landin, Nexthome Leading Edge Realty) with cumulative market exposure of 546 days. The pricing strategy across both periods relied on frequent micro-reductions — over 20 price changes totaling a $156,000 descent from $845,000 to $689,000 — without generating a sale.

February 1, 2024

Listing #1 — Listed at $845,000

MLS# 1748552 · Tom Landin, Nexthome Leading Edge Realty

Feb – Sep 2024

12+ Price Reductions → $786,000

Incremental cuts over 7 months: $845K → $843K → $839.5K → $799.5K → $799K → $797K → $795K → $789K → $787.5K → $786K. Withdrawn September 14, 2024.

−$59,000 from original

January 1, 2025

Listing #1 Expired — 226 DOM

Property sat withdrawn from Sep 2024, expired January 1, 2025. No sale.

May 15, 2025

Listing #2 — Re-Listed at $749,000

MLS# 1867072 · Same agent, same brokerage. Re-entered $37K below the expired price.

Jun 2025 – Mar 2026

8+ More Price Reductions → $689,000

$749K → $744K → $743K → $742K → $725K → $699K → $694K → $689K. Same pattern stretched over 10 months.

−$60,000 from re-list price

March 31, 2026

Listing #2 Cancelled — 320 DOM

Cancelled after 320 additional days. Total market exposure: 546 cumulative DOM.

−$156,000 total · 18.5% off original $845K

Why this matters: Every buyer's agent in the area can pull this history. 546 cumulative days and 20+ price reductions create a perception that something is wrong with the property — whether that's true or not. A successful re-launch requires accurate pricing from Day 1, a defined marketing strategy, and an agent willing to have honest pricing conversations rather than chase the market down with $1,000 cuts.

Pricing Comparables

Properties That Define Your Value Range

These four properties are the most directly relevant to pricing 9921 Michelle. They are the closest in price range, and the two closed sales are the best available benchmarks for what buyers have actually paid for no-pool properties with a similar profile in this corridor.

Sold — Closed Sales

2 properties

9063 Schoenthal No Pool

$770,000

MLS# 1896875 · Georg Ranch · Closed 3/16/2026

4,716 sqft

4 BR / 4 FB / 0 HB

0.75 acres

Built 2002

Cypress Custom Homes

$163.27/sqft

168 DOM

Originally listed: $790,000 · Sold-to-List: 100% · Sold-to-Original: 97% · Seller Concessions: $15,600

Most relevant sold comp. No pool, identical lot size (0.75 ac), similar vintage (2002 vs. 2004). Located in Georg Ranch — a stronger subdivision than Regency Oaks. Has 624 more sqft than the subject. Sold at 100% of final list price, but the seller paid $15,600 in concessions — making the effective net approximately $754,400 ($159.96/sqft net). Country view lot.

19019 Seminole No Pool

$780,000

MLS# 1893529 (SABOR) / ABOR# 8259263 · Garden Ridge · Closed 2/6/2026

4,674 sqft

5 BR / 3 FB / 1 HB

1.05 acres

Built 2009

Sheridan Homes

$170.94/sqft

150 DOM

Originally listed: $815,000 (SABOR) / $799,000 (ABOR) · Sold-to-List: 98% · Sold-to-Original: 96% · Seller Concessions: $700

Second critical no-pool sold comp. Cross-listed on SABOR and ABOR (same sale, same closing date). No pool, 5 bedrooms like the subject, cul-de-sac lot in Garden Ridge on 1.05 acres. Has 582 more sqft, is 5 years newer (2009 vs. 2004), and sits on a larger lot. SABOR shows 150 DOM from $815K; ABOR shows 46 DOM from $799K. Sold at 96% of highest original list price with only $700 in concessions.

Pending — Under Contract

1 property

1660 Forest Waters Pool

$725,000

MLS# 1948869 · Forest Waters · PND (Post-Inspection)

3,595 sqft

4 BR / 3 FB / 1 HB

1.07 acres

Built 1984

$201.66/sqft

24 DOM

Original list: $725,000 · No reductions — priced right from Day 1

Fastest contract in the comp set — 24 days. Despite being a 1984 build (oldest in the data), the pool, 1.07-acre corner lot, and accurate Day 1 pricing drove a rapid contract with zero reductions. Has 497 fewer sqft than the subject but went pending at $36,000 above the subject's cancelled price. The pool and pricing conviction made the difference.

Still Active — Struggling to Sell

1 property

1918 Pesa Cove No Pool

$794,000

MLS# 1885529 · Georg Ranch · PCH (Recent Price Change — Still Active)

4,012 sqft

4 BR / 3 FB / 1 HB

0.765 acres

Built 2011

Endeavor

$197.90/sqft

261 DOM

Originally listed: $885,000 · Reduced $91,000 · Still no contract at $794K

This property sets the ceiling — and warns against it. Very similar in size (4,012 vs. 4,092 sqft) and lot (0.765 vs. 0.75 acres), no pool, but 7 years newer (2011) and in Georg Ranch. At $197.90/sqft with 261 DOM, Pesa Cove remains unsold despite being newer and in a stronger subdivision. If this property cannot attract a buyer at $794K, the subject cannot price anywhere near that range.

Cancelled

Subject property

9921 Michelle — SUBJECT No Pool

$689,000

MLS# 1867072 · Regency Oaks · CAN — Cancelled 3/31/2026

4,092 sqft

5 BR / 4 FB / 0 HB

0.75 acres

Built 2004

$168.37/sqft

320 DOM (546 cumulative)

Listing #1 original (Feb 2024): $845,000 · Listing #2 original (May 2025): $749,000 · Final cancelled price: $689,000

Broader Market Activity

$800K+ Corridor Activity

The following properties are priced above $800,000 and are included to demonstrate that there are active and qualified buyers transacting in this corridor. However, these properties differ significantly from the subject in price tier, amenities, age, or construction type and are not being used to determine the subject's pricing or marketing strategy.

Why these are shown separately: These properties either have pools, are new construction, or are priced in a tier that the subject's profile and market history do not support. They confirm buyer activity in the area — not a price target for 9921 Michelle.

1510 Forest Waters Pool + Hot Tub + Heated

$930,000

MLS# 1907606 · Forest Waters · SLD — Closed 3/16/2026

4,017 sqft

5 BR / 3 FB / 1 HB

1.06 acres

Built 1994

$236.49/sqft

176 DOM

Originally listed: $1,199,000 · Sold-to-List: 98% · Sold-to-Original: 78% · No concessions

Pool, hot tub, and heated pool on 1.06 acres explain the $236.49/sqft rate — a 42% premium over the no-pool sold average of $167/sqft. Confirms buyers are active at the higher end of this corridor, but the amenity profile is not comparable to the subject.

8529 Benclare No Pool

$979,800

MLS# 1907280 · Heimer Gardens · PND (Post-Inspection)

4,345 sqft

5 BR / 5 FB / 2 HB

0.5 acres

Built 2025 — New Construction

Chesmar Homes

$225.50/sqft

171 DOM

Originally listed: $1,104,200 · Reduced $124,400 to pending price

New construction by Chesmar — the $225.50/sqft rate reflects new-build pricing that a 22-year-old resale cannot command. Even this property required $124,400 in reductions and 171 days to contract.

8207 Garden Arbor No Pool

$899,990

MLS# 1908614 · Woodlands of Garden Ridge – Comal · ACT

4,008 sqft

4 BR / 4 FB / 1 HB

0.75 acres

Built 2020

Chesmar

$224.54/sqft

200 DOM

Originally listed: $995,000 · Reduced $95,010 · Offering $20,000 in seller concessions

Same lot size and similar sqft to the subject, no pool — but 16 years newer (2020 vs. 2004). Despite being significantly newer, offering $20,000 in concessions, and reducing $95K, it has sat 200 days with no contract. If a 2020 build cannot sell at this price point, a 2004 build cannot approach this range.

2210 Via Posada No Pool

$855,600

MLS# 1925329 · Georg Ranch · CAN

4,388 sqft

4 BR / 3 FB / 0 HB

0.964 acres

Built 2003

M&M Fairway

$194.98/sqft

107 DOM

Listed and cancelled at $855,600 — no reductions during listing

Closest in vintage (2003 vs. 2004), no pool, but 296 more sqft, a larger lot, and Georg Ranch with country views. Cancelled at $194.98/sqft after 107 days — further confirming the $195+ range does not clear for no-pool resale, even in stronger subdivisions.

Price Per Square Foot

Market Rate Comparison

The top section shows the pricing comparables that directly inform the subject's value. Below the divider, $800K+ corridor activity is shown for context only — not as pricing benchmarks.

Forest Waters (PND)
Pool · 1984 · 24 DOM

$201.66

Pesa Cove (PCH)
No Pool · 2011 · 261 DOM

$197.90

Seminole (SLD)
No Pool · 2009 · 150 DOM

$170.94

9921 Michelle (CAN)
No Pool · 2004 · 546 DOM

$168.37

Schoenthal (SLD)
No Pool · 2002 · 168 DOM

$163.27

$800K+ Corridor Activity (Context Only)

Forest Waters (SLD)
Pool+Heated · 1994

$236.49

Benclare (PND)
New Const. 2025

$225.50

Garden Arbor (ACT)
No Pool · 2020 · 200 DOM

$224.54

Via Posada (CAN)
No Pool · 2003 · 107 DOM

$194.98

The two no-pool sold comps bracket the subject's cancelled price. Schoenthal closed at $163.27/sqft and Seminole closed at $170.94/sqft. The subject cancelled at $168.37/sqft — right between them. However, both sold properties are significantly larger (4,674–4,716 sqft vs. 4,092), which typically produces a lower $/sqft. Both are also in stronger locations (Georg Ranch and Garden Ridge vs. Regency Oaks). Schoenthal's net rate after $15,600 in concessions was approximately $160/sqft.

Above the sold range, nothing without a pool is selling. Pesa Cove at $197.90/sqft (no pool, 2011, Georg Ranch) has sat 261 days. In the $800K+ context section, Garden Arbor ($224.54/sqft, 2020, offering $20K concessions) — 200 DOM. Via Posada ($194.98/sqft, 2003, Georg Ranch) — cancelled after 107 DOM. The market has clearly drawn a line: no-pool resale properties are transacting in the $160–$171/sqft range and not above it.

Market Intelligence

Key Findings

$163–$171

Proven No-Pool Sold Range ($/sqft)

Two closed no-pool sales — Schoenthal at $163.27/sqft and Seminole at $170.94/sqft — establish where buyers have actually transacted for this property profile. Both are larger than the subject (4,674–4,716 sqft vs. 4,092) and in comparable or stronger locations.

96–100%

Sold-to-List Ratio (No-Pool Solds)

Schoenthal sold at 100% of final list (with $15,600 concessions). Seminole sold at 98%. Once priced correctly, buyers transacted close to the ask — confirming that accurate Day 1 pricing drives offers in this segment.

~$160/sqft

Closest Sold Net Rate (After Concessions)

Schoenthal's $770K sale included $15,600 in seller concessions, bringing the effective net to approximately $754,400 ($159.96/sqft). Same lot size as the subject, similar vintage, and the most realistic benchmark for net seller proceeds on a no-pool property in this area.

24 Days

Fastest Contract — Priced Right, Day 1

1660 Forest Waters went pending in 24 days with zero price reductions. The pool helped, but the pricing conviction from Day 1 is what generated immediate buyer interest — the only property in the comp set to contract in under 30 days.

261 DOM

Pesa Cove — The Ceiling Warning

The closest active comp in size and lot (4,012 sqft, 0.765 ac, no pool), yet 7 years newer and in Georg Ranch. At $197.90/sqft after $91K in reductions, it remains unsold at 261 days. The subject cannot price at or above what a newer, better-located property cannot sell for.

546

Cumulative DOM on Subject

Two listings, same agent, 20+ price reductions, $845K to $689K over nearly two years. The micro-reduction strategy eroded buyer confidence without ever creating the urgency that a well-priced Day 1 launch generates.

Comparable Summary

Side-by-Side Analysis

Address	Status	Price	SqFt	$/SqFt	DOM	Pool	Built	Acres	Orig. Price
Pricing Comparables
9921 Michelle ★	CAN	$689,000	4,092	$168	320	No	2004	0.75	$749,000
9063 Schoenthal	SLD	$770,000	4,716	$163	168	No	2002	0.75	$790,000
19019 Seminole	SLD	$780,000	4,674	$171	150	No	2009	1.05	$815,000
1660 Forest Waters	PND	$725,000	3,595	$202	24	Pool	1984	1.07	$725,000
1918 Pesa Cove	PCH	$794,000	4,012	$198	261	No	2011	0.77	$885,000
$800K+ Corridor Activity (Context — Not Used for Pricing)
1510 Forest Waters	SLD	$930,000	4,017	$236	176	Pool+	1994	1.06	$1,199,000
8529 Benclare	PND	$979,800	4,345	$226	171	No	2025	0.50	$1,104,200
8207 Garden Arbor	ACT	$899,990	4,008	$225	200	No	2020	0.75	$995,000
2210 Via Posada	CAN	$855,600	4,388	$195	107	No	2003	0.96	$855,600

Status Key: SLD = Sold · PND = Pending (post-inspection) · ACT = Active · PCH = Price Change (active, recently reduced) · CAN = Cancelled
★ = Subject Property · Pool+ = Pool with hot tub and/or heated pool

Strategic Pricing

What the Data Supports

This recommendation is anchored exclusively to the two closed no-pool sales, validated against the pending and active pricing comps, and stress-tested against the unsold inventory. The goal is a contract within 120 days of a fresh listing.

Data-Supported List Price Range

$649,000 — $675,000

$159 — $165 per square foot

How this range was derived:

Anchor #1 — 9063 Schoenthal (SLD, $163.27/sqft): Closed 3/16/2026 at $770,000 for 4,716 sqft in Georg Ranch. Same lot size (0.75 ac), similar vintage (2002 vs. 2004). However, Schoenthal has 624 more sqft and is in a stronger subdivision. Seller paid $15,600 in concessions — effective net rate: ~$160/sqft. At $160/sqft applied to the subject's 4,092 sqft = $654,720.

Anchor #2 — 19019 Seminole (SLD, $170.94/sqft): Closed 2/6/2026 at $780,000 for 4,674 sqft in Garden Ridge. 582 sqft larger, 5 years newer (2009 vs. 2004), and on a larger 1.05-acre lot. At the Seminole rate of $171/sqft applied to 4,092 sqft = $699,720 — but the subject's older age, smaller lot, and less desirable subdivision require a discount off this rate.

Ceiling validation — Pesa Cove ($197.90/sqft): A newer, better-located no-pool property with similar sqft has sat 261 days at $794K with no contract. Pricing the subject anywhere near this level would repeat the pattern that has already failed twice.

Bottom line: At $649,000–$675,000, the subject enters the market at or slightly below the proven no-pool sold range, positioned as the most competitively priced 4,000+ sqft option available. This is what generates buyer interest within 120 days. The previous strategy of chasing the market down in $1K–$2K increments over 546 days proved that this property cannot sell through gradual price discovery — it needs to be priced with conviction from Day 1.

PRICING SPECTRUM — SUBJECT PROPERTY

$625K
Floor

$649K–$675K
Recommended

$689K
Failed Price

$749K
2nd List Start

← Faster Sale

Extended DOM →

On the $689K cancellation vs. the recommended range: The subject's cancelled rate of $168.37/sqft falls between the two no-pool sold rates ($163 and $171). On paper, that price was within range. But the $689K price arrived after 546 days of market deterioration, 20+ reductions, and deep buyer-agent fatigue — not as a Day 1 competitive entry. A fresh MLS number and a conviction-priced launch at or below $675K can break through the market memory, but only if the pricing signals confidence rather than another round of chasing.